A newly released poll from ABC15 in Phoenix and OH Predictive Insights found that Democrat Rep. Kyrsten Sinema is currently leading all Republican contenders a race that’s crucial for the Democrats if they have any hope of retaking Senate majority. At stake is the seat which will be vacated by Republican Jeff Flake, a fairly consistent critic of president Trump who decided not to run again.
The poll matched Sinema against the top three Republican adversaries and found that she leads in every scenario. Results are as follows
- Kyrsten Sinema versus Martha McSally: Sinema holds 48 percent to McSally’s 42 percent (10 percent undecided)
- Kyrsten Sinema versus Kelli Ward: Sinema holds 50 percent to Ward’s 40 percent (10 percent undecided)
- Kyrsten Sinema versus Joe Arpaio: Sinema holds 59 percent to Arpaio’s 33 percent (8 percent undecided)
The GOP establishment favorite was already thought to be Martha McSally, a conservative with a military background who’s been in the US House since 2015; Kelli Ward is a former Arizona Senator. Joe Arpaio is the now-notorious former Sheriff Maricopa County, a post he held for 24 years (from 1993 to 2017).
I should say that while they haven’t been gold standard polls… All of the (limited) general election polls in AZ have had Sinema ahead of McSally including this latest one. Sinema also leads Ward/Arpaio by 10+. https://t.co/WZnTEF1mOA
— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) April 19, 2018
The primaries won’t be held until August so it’s important to take this poll with the appropriate grain of salt. The Cook Political Report which is tracking all current senate races lists Arizona as a “toss-up” leaning neither Democrat nor Republican.
During a speech to the National Press Club last month, Senator Flake said:
“If we are going to cloister ourselves in the alternative truth of an erratic leader, if we are going to refuse to live in a world that everyone else lives in … then my party might not deserve to lead.”
Will Arizonans ultimately agree with Flake?