A new CNN poll shows that Democratic hopes of a bump in their midterm election hopes due to the possible SCOTUS overturn of Roe V. Wade may be unfounded. The GOP appears to still be in the driver’s seat for November because voters are ultimately more concerned with the way Democrats are handling the economy.
The poll, released last week, shows the GOP with a 49% to 42% advantage on the generic Congressional ballot for the upcoming November elections. If that 7-point lead held until November, it would be as big a victory for Republicans in the House vote as it was in 2010 when the party regained the majority and ended up with 242 out of the 435 House seats.
While SCOTUS overturning the controversial abortion precedent may or may not help Republicans,it does seem as if currently, that news has failed to give Democrats a much needed bump.
CNN’s poll addresses potential differential turnout by asking voters how excited they are about voting in November and indicates that motivated voters will have a high turnout, which would be bad news for the Democrats if the current trends hold for 6 months, as it shows 29% of Republican-leaning voters said they were extremely excited about voting while a mere 20% of voters leaning towards the Democrats said the same thing about voting.
The 9-point advantage in this poll is very similar to another CNN poll that was conducted just before Justice Alito’s draft opinion was made public two weeks ago, that showed an 8-point advantage for the GOP with extremely enthusiastic voters.
In the spring of 2018 similar polls showed that 27% of voters who leaned Democrat were extremely enthusiastic compared to around 21% who favored the GOP. Democrats won the House majority that fall.
The key issue that is driving the poll numbers is likely not the Roe V. Wade issue at all, but rather is likely economics. More Americans 46% said they think Republicans are closer to their own positions on the economy than are Democrats, at 31%. That 15-point lead is fairly significant, as another CNN poll says that half of Americans place the economy as the number one issue in the U.S.
If American’s view of the economy doesn’t improve in the next several months, it is likely that regardless of what the Supreme Court does about Roe. V. Wade, Republicans could see a red wave and take back congress in November.